Impacto na viabilidade econômica de um sistema fotovoltaico de geração distribuída em Natal, Rio Grande do Norte, após vigência da Lei 14.300/2022
Brazil has faced several periods of drought that severely impacted the stability of the electricity supply. In 2022, once again, Brazil experienced the possibility of a shortage of light due to the water crisis, leading to an annual average tariff per MWh reaching the peak of 686.4 Brazilian r...
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| Formato: | bachelorThesis |
| Idioma: | pt_BR |
| Publicado em: |
Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte
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| Endereço do item: | https://repositorio.ufrn.br/handle/123456789/56197 |
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| Resumo: | Brazil has faced several periods of drought that severely impacted the stability of the
electricity supply. In 2022, once again, Brazil experienced the possibility of a shortage
of light due to the water crisis, leading to an annual average tariff per MWh reaching
the peak of 686.4 Brazilian reais. Enterprises of all sizes have been grappling with the
high tariffs charged by distributors. This study aims to assess the impact of Law
14,300/2022 on the economic feasibility of installing photovoltaic systems of three
different sizes (4kWp, 30kWp, and 300kWp) in Natal, Rio Grande do Norte, as an
alternative to high tariffs. To provide a comprehensive analysis, the research examines
the profitability of each sizing in two distinct scenarios: before and after the enactment
of the mentioned law. The evaluation process covers proper system sizing, projection
of associated costs, and calculation of the expected cash flow. Viability analysis is
conducted using tools such as Net Present Value (NPV), Internal Rate of Return (IRR),
Discounted Payback, and Sensitivity Analysis. The study reveals that, in smaller
systems, the financial difference between scenarios is relatively small, while in larger
systems (30kWp and 300kWp), the compensation for availability costs does not offset
the negative impact of the non-compensable TUSD wire B, favoring the pre-law
scenario. In summary, Law 14,300/2022 had a significantly negative impact on
investments in photovoltaic systems, with smaller systems being less affected. Despite
the challenges, all cash flows analyzed showed positive results over 25 years,
indicating that investment in this technology remains viable. |
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