Aspectos dinâmicos e climatológicos dos ciclones bombas no Hemisfério Sul
A Bomb Cyclone (BC) is an Extratropical Cyclone (EC) of rapid pressure drop at the center of the system on the order of 1 hPa per hour for 24 hours. This system has gained popularity in recent years for imposing serious threats to the safety of shipping, fishing, maritime operations and other act...
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Climatologia Ciclone Rastreamento Dinâmica Extratropical CNPQ::CIENCIAS EXATAS E DA TERRA |
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Climatologia Ciclone Rastreamento Dinâmica Extratropical CNPQ::CIENCIAS EXATAS E DA TERRA Reis, Jean Souza dos Aspectos dinâmicos e climatológicos dos ciclones bombas no Hemisfério Sul |
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A Bomb Cyclone (BC) is an Extratropical Cyclone (EC) of rapid pressure drop at the
center of the system on the order of 1 hPa per hour for 24 hours. This system has gained
popularity in recent years for imposing serious threats to the safety of shipping, fishing,
maritime operations and other activities in coastal regions and the recent impacts on the
population. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to analyze the physical characteristics,
dynamics, and phase of BC in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) through a robust
climatology from 1979 to 2020. In addition, the existence of a trend in the number of BC
over time and the influence of frontal systems (FS) on natural disasters (ND) in Southern
Brazil. It is hoped that the results can serve as a basis for improved services such as
numerical simulations and be used as prognostics to assist in risk management with a set
of preventive and mitigating actions in order to minimize the impact of these systems
suffered by the population. We used reanalyzed ensemble ERA5 data from the Europe
Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), with spatial resolution of
0.125°x0.125° and 2.5°x2. 5° and 6-hour temporal over the period 1979 to 2019, natural
disaster data kindly provided by the Centro Nacional de Monitoramento e Alertas de
Desastres Naturais (Cemaden) from 2016 to 2020, daily cumulative precipitation data
estimated from the Integrated Multi-satellite Retrievals for GPM (IMERG) algorithm
(version 5) of the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) 0. 25°x0.25° from 2016 to
2020 and surface synoptic charts from the Center for Weather Forecasting Climate
Studies/National Institute for Space Research (CPTEC/INPE) at the four major synoptic
times (00, 06, 12, and 18 UTC) from 2016 to 2020. For BC detection and tracking, a
cyclone tracking scheme was used on mid-sea level pressure fields every six hours. To
evaluate the three-dimensional structure of cyclones, the Cyclone Phase Space (CPS) was
used. The statistical tests Student's test-t, Shapiro-Wilk, Mann-Kendall, Pettit and Sen's
estimation were used to determine the existence, magnitude and trend breaking point in
the BC time series. The total number of BC was 587, with the highest occurrence (44.2%)
in winter and the lowest (6.1%) in summer. The spatial density of BC in the SH showed
good agreement with that seen in the literature, seen mainly around Antarctica in a kind
of spiral around it, in the cyclogenetic area of SSA southeast of Uruguay over the South
Atlantic Ocean, in the southeast of the Australian continent, and in the Tasman Sea. The
physical and dynamic characteristics such as: velocity, lifetime, pressure gradient and
deepening rate, showed good agreement with other works in the literature. It was found that there is a trend in the number of BC over the years with statistical evidence. There is
an increase of one BC every 4 years since 1999. Strong evidence was identified that over
35% of BC that form in the SH follow the theoretical cyclone model known as ShapiroKeyser. In the evaluation of ND caused by the passage of a FS over southern Brazil, it
was observed that the most affected regions are the coast of Santa Catarina and the
central-eastern region of Rio Grande do Sul. In addition, it was found that the frontal
systems that generate natural disasters are different from the other frontal systems that
affect Southern Brazil. The main differences noted were: a pattern of increase and
accumulation of available convective potential energy west of Southern Brazil prior to
ND, especially in spring; a considerable increase in specific humidity at low levels
associated with runoff east of the Andes; and an anticyclonic circulation at high levels
similar to the Bolivian high. Analysis of rainfall behavior indicates that it is highest on
the two days prior to the disaster. The mean precipitation values identified, together with
the observed atmospheric behavior, allow the identification of the potential occurrence of
a disaster in the cities of southern Brazil in the passage of a frontal system. |
| author2 |
Gonçalves, Weber Andrade |
| author_facet |
Gonçalves, Weber Andrade Reis, Jean Souza dos |
| format |
doctoralThesis |
| author |
Reis, Jean Souza dos |
| author_sort |
Reis, Jean Souza dos |
| title |
Aspectos dinâmicos e climatológicos dos ciclones bombas no Hemisfério Sul |
| title_short |
Aspectos dinâmicos e climatológicos dos ciclones bombas no Hemisfério Sul |
| title_full |
Aspectos dinâmicos e climatológicos dos ciclones bombas no Hemisfério Sul |
| title_fullStr |
Aspectos dinâmicos e climatológicos dos ciclones bombas no Hemisfério Sul |
| title_full_unstemmed |
Aspectos dinâmicos e climatológicos dos ciclones bombas no Hemisfério Sul |
| title_sort |
aspectos dinâmicos e climatológicos dos ciclones bombas no hemisfério sul |
| publisher |
Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte |
| publishDate |
2023 |
| url |
https://repositorio.ufrn.br/handle/123456789/52470 |
| work_keys_str_mv |
AT reisjeansouzados aspectosdinamicoseclimatologicosdosciclonesbombasnohemisferiosul |
| _version_ |
1773961128070610944 |
| spelling |
ri-123456789-524702023-05-17T19:49:03Z Aspectos dinâmicos e climatológicos dos ciclones bombas no Hemisfério Sul Reis, Jean Souza dos Gonçalves, Weber Andrade https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1674-7518 http://lattes.cnpq.br/0801184027360772 http://lattes.cnpq.br/3901367142857642 Mendes, David http://lattes.cnpq.br/4411895644401494 Bezerra, Bergson Guedes Silva, Claudio Moisés Santos e Souza, Diego Oliveira de Emiliavaca, Samira de Azevedo Santos Climatologia Ciclone Rastreamento Dinâmica Extratropical CNPQ::CIENCIAS EXATAS E DA TERRA A Bomb Cyclone (BC) is an Extratropical Cyclone (EC) of rapid pressure drop at the center of the system on the order of 1 hPa per hour for 24 hours. This system has gained popularity in recent years for imposing serious threats to the safety of shipping, fishing, maritime operations and other activities in coastal regions and the recent impacts on the population. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to analyze the physical characteristics, dynamics, and phase of BC in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) through a robust climatology from 1979 to 2020. In addition, the existence of a trend in the number of BC over time and the influence of frontal systems (FS) on natural disasters (ND) in Southern Brazil. It is hoped that the results can serve as a basis for improved services such as numerical simulations and be used as prognostics to assist in risk management with a set of preventive and mitigating actions in order to minimize the impact of these systems suffered by the population. We used reanalyzed ensemble ERA5 data from the Europe Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), with spatial resolution of 0.125°x0.125° and 2.5°x2. 5° and 6-hour temporal over the period 1979 to 2019, natural disaster data kindly provided by the Centro Nacional de Monitoramento e Alertas de Desastres Naturais (Cemaden) from 2016 to 2020, daily cumulative precipitation data estimated from the Integrated Multi-satellite Retrievals for GPM (IMERG) algorithm (version 5) of the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) 0. 25°x0.25° from 2016 to 2020 and surface synoptic charts from the Center for Weather Forecasting Climate Studies/National Institute for Space Research (CPTEC/INPE) at the four major synoptic times (00, 06, 12, and 18 UTC) from 2016 to 2020. For BC detection and tracking, a cyclone tracking scheme was used on mid-sea level pressure fields every six hours. To evaluate the three-dimensional structure of cyclones, the Cyclone Phase Space (CPS) was used. The statistical tests Student's test-t, Shapiro-Wilk, Mann-Kendall, Pettit and Sen's estimation were used to determine the existence, magnitude and trend breaking point in the BC time series. The total number of BC was 587, with the highest occurrence (44.2%) in winter and the lowest (6.1%) in summer. The spatial density of BC in the SH showed good agreement with that seen in the literature, seen mainly around Antarctica in a kind of spiral around it, in the cyclogenetic area of SSA southeast of Uruguay over the South Atlantic Ocean, in the southeast of the Australian continent, and in the Tasman Sea. The physical and dynamic characteristics such as: velocity, lifetime, pressure gradient and deepening rate, showed good agreement with other works in the literature. It was found that there is a trend in the number of BC over the years with statistical evidence. There is an increase of one BC every 4 years since 1999. Strong evidence was identified that over 35% of BC that form in the SH follow the theoretical cyclone model known as ShapiroKeyser. In the evaluation of ND caused by the passage of a FS over southern Brazil, it was observed that the most affected regions are the coast of Santa Catarina and the central-eastern region of Rio Grande do Sul. In addition, it was found that the frontal systems that generate natural disasters are different from the other frontal systems that affect Southern Brazil. The main differences noted were: a pattern of increase and accumulation of available convective potential energy west of Southern Brazil prior to ND, especially in spring; a considerable increase in specific humidity at low levels associated with runoff east of the Andes; and an anticyclonic circulation at high levels similar to the Bolivian high. Analysis of rainfall behavior indicates that it is highest on the two days prior to the disaster. The mean precipitation values identified, together with the observed atmospheric behavior, allow the identification of the potential occurrence of a disaster in the cities of southern Brazil in the passage of a frontal system. Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior - CAPES Um Ciclone Bomba (CB) é um Ciclone Extratropical (CE) que apresenta rápido decaimento da pressão no centro do sistema na ordem de 1 hPa por hora durante 24 horas. Esse sistema ganhou popularidade nos últimos anos por impor sérias ameaças à segurança do transporte marítimo, pesca, operações marítimas e outras atividades nas regiões costeiras e os recentes impactos sobre a população. Portanto, o propósito deste estudo é analisar as características físicas, dinâmicas e fase dos CB no Hemisfério Sul (HS) através de uma robusta climatologia de 1979 a 2020. Além disso, a existência de tendência no número de CB ao longos do tempo e a influência de Sistemas Frontais (SF) em Desastres Naturais (DN) no Sul do Brasil. Espera-se que os resultados possam servir de base para melhoria de serviços como simulações numéricas e serem usados como prognósticos para auxiliar na gestão de riscos com um conjunto de ações preventivas e mitigadoras a fim de minimizar o impacto desses sistemas sofridos pela população. Foram utilizados dados reanalisados do conjunto ERA5 oriundos do Europe Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), de resolução espacial de 0.125°x0.125° e 2.5°x2.5° e temporal de 6 horas no período de 1979 a 2019, dados de desastres naturais gentilmente cedidos pelo Centro Nacional de Monitoramento e Alertas de Desastres Naturais (Cemaden) de 2016 a 2020, dados de precipitação acumulada diária, estimadas do algoritmo Integrated Multisatellite Retrievals for GPM (IMERG) (versão 5) da missão do Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) 0.25°x0.25° de 2016 a 2020 e cartas sinóticas de superfície do Centro de Previsão do Tempo de Estudos Climáticos/Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (CPTEC/INPE) nos quatro horários sinóticos principais (00, 06, 12 e 18 UTC) de 2016 a 2020. Para a detecção e rastreamento dos CB, foi utilizado um esquema de rastreamento de ciclones em campos de nível de pressão ao nível médio do mar a cada seis horas. Para avaliar a estrutura tridimensional dos ciclones foi utilizado o Diagrama de Fase do Ciclone (CPS). Os testes estatísticos teste-t de Student, Shapiro-Wilk, MannKendall, Pettit e estimativa de Sen foram utilizadas para determinar a existência, magnitude e ponto de quebra da tendência na série temporal dos CB. O número total de CB foi 587, com maior ocorrência (44,2%) no inverno e a menor (6,1%) no verão. A densidade espacial dos CB no HS mostrou boa concordância com o visto na literatura, vista principalmente ao redor da Antártida, em uma espécie de espiral em todo seu em torno, na área ciclogenética da AS à sudeste do Uruguai sobre o Oceano Atlântico Sul, no Sudeste do continente Australiano e no Mar da Tasmânia. As características físicas e dinâmicas como: velocidade, tempo de vida, gradiente de pressão e taxa de aprofundamento, mostraram boa concordância com outros trabalhos na literatura. Foi constatado a existência de tendência no número de CB ao longo dos anos com evidências estatísticas. Há aumento de um CB a cada 4 anos desde 1999. Foram identificadas fortes evidências que mais de 35% de CB que se formam no HS seguem o modelo teórico de ciclone conhecido como Shapiro-Keyser. Na avaliação de DN ocasionados pela passagem de um SF sobre o Sul do Brasil, foram observadas que as regiões mais afetadas são o litoral catarinense e a região centro-leste do Rio Grande do Sul. Além disso, foi constatado que os sistemas frontais que geram desastres naturais são diferentes dos demais sistemas frontais que afetam o Sul do Brasil. As principais diferenças notadas foram: um padrão de aumento e acúmulo de energia potencial convectiva disponível a oeste do Sul do Brasil antes do DN, especialmente na primavera; um aumento considerável da umidade específica em níveis baixos associados ao escoamento a leste dos Andes; e uma circulação anticiclônica em níveis elevados semelhantes à alta boliviana. A análise do comportamento da chuva indica que ela é mais alta nos dois dias anteriores ao desastre. Os valores médios de precipitação identificados, juntamente com o comportamento atmosférico observado, permitem identificar a potencial ocorrência de um desastre nas cidades do Sul do Brasil na passagem de um sistema frontal. 2023-05-17T19:48:19Z 2023-05-17T19:48:19Z 2022-11-30 doctoralThesis REIS, Jean Souza dos. Aspectos dinâmicos e climatológicos dos ciclones bombas no Hemisfério Sul. Orientador: Weber Andrade Gonçalves. 2022. 128f. Tese (Doutorado em Ciências Climáticas) - Centro de Ciências Exatas e da Terra, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte, Natal, 2022. https://repositorio.ufrn.br/handle/123456789/52470 pt_BR Acesso Aberto application/pdf Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte Brasil UFRN PROGRAMA DE PÓS-GRADUAÇÃO EM CIÊNCIAS CLIMÁTICAS |