Aplicação de técnicas de Machine Learning na combinação de pesquisas eleitorais
The Brazilian electoral polls are made, mostly, from a non-probabilistic sample plan by quotas. Thus, there is an accumulation of uncertainties regarding the estimates obtained, since there is no way to guarantee that the margin of error is being respected and there is no way to calculate the con...
Na minha lista:
| Autor principal: | |
|---|---|
| Outros Autores: | |
| Formato: | bachelorThesis |
| Idioma: | pt_BR |
| Publicado em: |
Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte
|
| Assuntos: | |
| Endereço do item: | https://repositorio.ufrn.br/handle/123456789/34315 |
| Tags: |
Adicionar Tag
Sem tags, seja o primeiro a adicionar uma tag!
|
| Resumo: | The Brazilian electoral polls are made, mostly, from a non-probabilistic sample plan by
quotas. Thus, there is an accumulation of uncertainties regarding the estimates obtained,
since there is no way to guarantee that the margin of error is being respected and there is
no way to calculate the confidence intervals. As a way to reduce the error in the estimation
of the intention of votes, this work proposes the use of techniques of Machine Learning to
combine electoral polls. We used the electoral polls for the first round of the presidential
election of 2014 in Brazil, published by the institutes Datafolha, Ibope, MDA, Sensus and
Vox Populi. The combinations were made using Local Regression, Random Forest and
Support Vector Machine (SVM). With the exception of Random Forest and SVM with
linear kernel, the other techniques presented as good options for combining the polls. |
|---|