Cenários de ruptura da barragem Passagem das Traíras: uma contribuição para a redução de riscos de desastres tecnológicos e segurança populacional em Caicó/RN/Brasil
Water is a vital element for mankind, and for this reason, maintaining access to water over time becomes a fundamental practice, especially in regions with irregular rainfall patterns. Thus, since old times, populations have the habit of building dams, which over time have undergone different con...
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| Formato: | Dissertação |
| Idioma: | pt_BR |
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Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte
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| Endereço do item: | https://repositorio.ufrn.br/handle/123456789/32376 |
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| Resumo: | Water is a vital element for mankind, and for this reason, maintaining access to water over time
becomes a fundamental practice, especially in regions with irregular rainfall patterns. Thus, since
old times, populations have the habit of building dams, which over time have undergone different
construction methods and processes. These structures normally follow the accuracy that civil
engineering requires, but with the lack of repairs, the dam has failed in its infrastructure, either for
weather reasons or for human failures. This fact represents a technological risk, due to the absence
or bad use of robust techniques, for the populations in the downstream valleys. This is the case of
the Passagem das Traíras dam, located in the Semi-Arid region, in the interior of Rio Grande do
Norte. The structure of this dam has spent more than 24 years without significant interventions in
its structure, and in 2015 the National Water Agency found structural pathologies in the dam. Hence,
in 2018 the risk of Attention to Alert of rupture in the dam was increased, whose volumetric capacity
is 49.7 million cubic meters, representing a risk for the city of Caicó / RN, located in the valley on
the River Seridó with a population of approximately 60 thousand inhabitants, located about 14 km
downstream of the dam. So, the main objective of this study is the analysis of the dangers of disaster
from a possible rupture of the Passagem das Traíras dam in the municipality of Caicó/RN, within
the debate of knowing the consequences that the city can cause. To achieve the goals, a theoretical
discussion was held on the concepts of risk, danger and vulnerability with a focus on technological
disasters and institutional and physical vulnerability. In addition, Kuperman's (2001) methodology
was adapted to the reality of this study, the Potential Hazard Indicators, Real State of the Dam and
Behavior Index, were constructed based on the substitution of the weights, according to the criteria
presented in the original methodology, for the attribution of the index values, technical reports from
ANA (2005; 2015; 2018; 2019) and SEMARH (2016; 2019) were consulted, and according to each
justification of the variables, the index tables were filled out. Through the geoprocessing techniques,
it was estimated by means of interpolation in the topography of Caicó/RN, the level curves that
gave rise to the realization of the flood wave Buffer, which was estimated in two scenarios, of 50%
and 100% , equivalent to 25 M³ and 49.7 M³ respectively, whose flood areas are 48 km² and 85 km²
in both scenarios, counting from the dam wall to the urban area of Caicó/RN. By obtaining
population information from Caicó/RN in the census sectors of IBGE (2019), adding the Overlay
geoprocessing techniques of layers, the values of the exposed population were obtained. An
incursion on-site into the dam was carried out in order to check the pathologies in the structures and
make the images, in the urban area of Caicó / RN aerial photographs were made by drone, in order
to check the properties. The value of real estate losses was calculated by overlapping the values of
the square meter of each neighborhood in Caicó, within each buffer of the flood shares. As a result,
the values of 60 for the Potential Hazard were obtained, obtaining the degree of High. For the Real
State of the Dam the value was 42, characterizing it as unsatisfactory, and for the Behavior Index
the value was 49.2, attributing the degree of Emergency. The number of people exposed in the two
scenarios varies between 17 thousand and 37 thousand, in addition, for the 50% quota, the real
estate losses estimate is approximately R$ 293 million, and for the 100% quota it is approximately
the value of 856 million in property losses. Therefore, the study collaborates for the studied theme
and will serve as subsidy to the municipal management and the Civil Defense for the elaboration of
future action plans that will help making better plans on the territory of Caicó/RN. |
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