Influência da variabilidade climática nos volumes dos reservatórios do Nordeste do Brasil
The general objective of this research was to identify the relationship between climatic variability and the volume of water in reservoirs in Northeast Brazil (NEB) during the period from 1986 to 2018. The dissertation was structured in the format of articles. Therefore, the first article aimed to...
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| Formato: | Dissertação |
| Idioma: | pt_BR |
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Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte
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| Endereço do item: | https://repositorio.ufrn.br/handle/123456789/31243 |
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| Resumo: | The general objective of this research was to identify the relationship between climatic variability
and the volume of water in reservoirs in Northeast Brazil (NEB) during the period from 1986 to 2018.
The dissertation was structured in the format of articles. Therefore, the first article aimed to identify
the relationship between the spatial patterns of the variability modes of the Atlantic and Tropical
Pacific Ocean with the sub-regions of rainfall that affect the patterns of water volumes in NEB
reservoirs during the period from 1986 to 2018. To this end, monthly rainfall data from the National
Meteorological Institute, National Water Agency (ANA) and state agencies were used; anomalies of
sea surface temperature (SST) of the Tropical Pacific selected through the Oceanic Nino Index (ONI);
anomalies of SST in the Tropical Atlantic Ocean known as Tropical South Atlantic (TSA) and
Tropical Northern Atlantic (TNA) indices; Northern Atlantic Oscillation index (NAO) of the National
Center Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and percentage monthly volume of the total capacity of the
reservoirs obtained from ANA and the state water resources secretariats. Then, some techniques for
multivariate statistical analysis of data were applied, such as cluster analysis and Partial Least Squares
Regression (PSLR). In this way, five sub-regions were found with three distinct rainy seasons. The
loads of the first components of the PSLR model showed that for the dry and rainy season the ONI
and NAO indices played key roles in most of the obtained sub-regions. Therefore, most of the
variability of rainfall was caused by the ONI index, during the rainy season. The synthetic time series
of rainfall of the sub-regions found showed a strong positive correlation with the climatology of the
volume of the reservoirs and lags of up to five months after the beginning of the series. In the second
article, the effect of precipitation resulting from the actions of the Intertropical Convergence Zone
(ZCIT), East Wave Disturbances (DOL), Frontal Systems (SF) and the South Atlantic Convergence
Zone (ZCAS) was quantified during the rainy season of the NEB sub-regions, in El Niño (EN), La
Niña (LN) and Neutral (NE) years, in the water volumes of the artificial reservoirs and in the variables
of the climatological water balance of the NEB sub-regions, during the period from 1998 to 2018.
For this purpose, we used: wind u and v data from the Era-Interim reanalysis of the European Center
for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts; long-wave radiation emerging from the NCEP; daily rainfall
rate of the Global Precipitation Climatology Project; volume of water stored in artificial reservoirs
obtained from ANA and state departments; soil moisture, climatic water deficit, runoff and atual
evapotranspiration of TerraClimate. Thus, semi-objective techniques were used to identify ZCIT and
DOL. The identification of SF and ZCAS was made from the daily and monthly bulletins of
Climananalysis and technicians, both from CPTEC / INPE. Finally, correspondence analysis was
applied. The results showed that during the years of EN negative rain anomalies were observed over
the north of the NEB. ZCIT's central middle position was between -1ºS and 1ºN. During all years of
EN negative rain anomalies were observed in the east of the NEB, in addition the amount of DOL
that reached the east of the NEB showed a slight reduction. The mean SF, which reached the south of
the NEB, was two cases in the years of EN. The number of SACZ, during the years of EN, was three
events. In general, it was found that the volume of water in the reservoirs was sensitive both to TSM
anomalies in the Pacific and Atlantic oceans and to the variability of atmospheric systems that
operated in the locations where the reservoirs are inserted. |
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