Previsão e séries temporais para tomada de decisão empresarial em uma indústria moveleira da Região de Criciúma–SC
An adequate forecast should give support to minimize risk decisions by the decision makers, being essential for individual and organizational planning of economic agents. In this sense, the purpose of this paper is to conduct a study about forecast and time series for business decision-making in a f...
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| Principais autores: | , , , , |
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| Formato: | article |
| Idioma: | pt_BR |
| Publicado em: |
Conselho Regional de Contabilidade de Santa Catarina
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| Assuntos: | |
| Endereço do item: | https://repositorio.ufrn.br/jspui/handle/123456789/29923 |
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| Resumo: | An adequate forecast should give support to minimize risk decisions by the decision makers, being essential for individual and organizational planning of economic agents. In this sense, the purpose of this paper is to conduct a study about forecast and time series for business decision-making in a furniture industry in the region of Criciúma, SC. The methodology was based on the construction of univariate models to forecast prices based on time series data, the study s classified as exploratory, bibliographical and a case study with quantitative data. For purposes of this research, we chose to select the linear method, Holt and Holt-Winters and ARIMA (Auto Regressive Moving Average Integrate). Therefore, it was possible to present the different models available in the literature aiming to estimate the demand for bathroom’s furniture and project future sales. The results showed that the ARIMA (Auto Regressive Moving Average Integrate) was not efficient in the case analyzed due to small number of data precluding an analysis of seasonality, which suggests that the company uses the method of Holt to estimate the number of products being sold and that, as new products are sold, other models are tested again, since the incorporation of new data will allow to confirm the presence or absence of seasonality |
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