Estudo hidrometeorológico da bacia amazônica

The change in patterns of hydrometeorological variables has been a major concern in the scientific community and society as a whole. All concerns they are in the sense of understanding how the impact on the environment is. Thus, the objective of this project was to study hydrometeorol...

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Autor principal: Chagas, Glayson Francisco Bezerra das
Outros Autores: Silva, Cláudio Moisés Santos e
Formato: doctoralThesis
Idioma:pt_BR
Publicado em: Brasil
Assuntos:
Desmatamento
Amazônia
ARIMA
SPEI
RegCM4
Wavelet
CNPQ::CIENCIAS EXATAS E DA TERRA: CIÊNCIAS CLIMÁTICAS
Endereço do item:https://repositorio.ufrn.br/jspui/handle/123456789/26955
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id ri-123456789-26955
record_format dspace
institution Repositório Institucional
collection RI - UFRN
language pt_BR
topic Desmatamento
Amazônia
ARIMA
SPEI
RegCM4
Wavelet
CNPQ::CIENCIAS EXATAS E DA TERRA: CIÊNCIAS CLIMÁTICAS
spellingShingle Desmatamento
Amazônia
ARIMA
SPEI
RegCM4
Wavelet
CNPQ::CIENCIAS EXATAS E DA TERRA: CIÊNCIAS CLIMÁTICAS
Chagas, Glayson Francisco Bezerra das
Estudo hidrometeorológico da bacia amazônica
description The change in patterns of hydrometeorological variables has been a major concern in the scientific community and society as a whole. All concerns they are in the sense of understanding how the impact on the environment is. Thus, the objective of this project was to study hydrometeorological aspects (precipitation and evapotranspiration) in different regions of the Amazon with different levels of deforestation. For this, rainfall data from the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) with monthly frequency and spatial coverage of 0.5º latitude and longitude (300 x 120 grid points) that comprise the climatological period from 1981 to 2010 for the North, East and Southern regions of the Amazon. Also dry severity index data were used (Standardised Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index – SPEI) on monthly scales (SPEI-1) and annual (SPEI-12) with the purpose of analyzing the variability and identifying the severity of the drought, for the same climatological period of precipitation for each region of the study. The methodology consisted in using stochastic model results of the Auto Regressive Integrated to Moving Averages (ARIMA), from which it was possible to analyze the dependent variable (precipitation) as a function of time in each region. In addition, a climatological simulation (1981-2010) was carried out for Tropical South America from RegCM4 using the Grell parameterization scheme. From the precipitation and temperature of the model, climatological series of SPEI-1 and SPEI-12 were generated for the regions, being possible the comparative analysis between observation and model. Additionally, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) was analyzed in order to establish a relationship between the large oceanic forcings (notably the El Niño Southern Oscillation) and the hydrometeorological response on the studied regions. For the analysis of the temporal scale of the dominant variability for these variables, the Wavelet Transform (TW) methodology was applied. The results indicated a greater variability in the rainfall in the eastern region where there is a marked increase in deforestation, which is part of the deforestation arc and in the South, where deforestation is already well established. While for the North region, the pattern remained without great variability. The ARIMA model was adequate, with good adjustment for monthly precipitation for the study regions. With regard to the RegCM4, this one ,it underestimated precipitation for the entire climatological series of all regions, but was able to adequately represent the variability of climatology for both precipitation and SPEI, mainly on the annual temporal scale (SPEI-12). As well as, it was better adjusted to identify conditions of moderate drought severity, mainly for the North and East regions.
author2 Silva, Cláudio Moisés Santos e
author_facet Silva, Cláudio Moisés Santos e
Chagas, Glayson Francisco Bezerra das
format doctoralThesis
author Chagas, Glayson Francisco Bezerra das
author_sort Chagas, Glayson Francisco Bezerra das
title Estudo hidrometeorológico da bacia amazônica
title_short Estudo hidrometeorológico da bacia amazônica
title_full Estudo hidrometeorológico da bacia amazônica
title_fullStr Estudo hidrometeorológico da bacia amazônica
title_full_unstemmed Estudo hidrometeorológico da bacia amazônica
title_sort estudo hidrometeorológico da bacia amazônica
publisher Brasil
publishDate 2019
url https://repositorio.ufrn.br/jspui/handle/123456789/26955
work_keys_str_mv AT chagasglaysonfranciscobezerradas estudohidrometeorologicodabaciaamazonica
_version_ 1773958108596404224
spelling ri-123456789-269552019-05-26T06:14:49Z Estudo hidrometeorológico da bacia amazônica Chagas, Glayson Francisco Bezerra das Silva, Cláudio Moisés Santos e Andrade, Lara de Melo Barbosa Lúcio, Paulo Sérgio Silva, Aline Gomes da Amorim, Ana Cleide Bezerra Desmatamento Amazônia ARIMA SPEI RegCM4 Wavelet CNPQ::CIENCIAS EXATAS E DA TERRA: CIÊNCIAS CLIMÁTICAS The change in patterns of hydrometeorological variables has been a major concern in the scientific community and society as a whole. All concerns they are in the sense of understanding how the impact on the environment is. Thus, the objective of this project was to study hydrometeorological aspects (precipitation and evapotranspiration) in different regions of the Amazon with different levels of deforestation. For this, rainfall data from the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) with monthly frequency and spatial coverage of 0.5º latitude and longitude (300 x 120 grid points) that comprise the climatological period from 1981 to 2010 for the North, East and Southern regions of the Amazon. Also dry severity index data were used (Standardised Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index – SPEI) on monthly scales (SPEI-1) and annual (SPEI-12) with the purpose of analyzing the variability and identifying the severity of the drought, for the same climatological period of precipitation for each region of the study. The methodology consisted in using stochastic model results of the Auto Regressive Integrated to Moving Averages (ARIMA), from which it was possible to analyze the dependent variable (precipitation) as a function of time in each region. In addition, a climatological simulation (1981-2010) was carried out for Tropical South America from RegCM4 using the Grell parameterization scheme. From the precipitation and temperature of the model, climatological series of SPEI-1 and SPEI-12 were generated for the regions, being possible the comparative analysis between observation and model. Additionally, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) was analyzed in order to establish a relationship between the large oceanic forcings (notably the El Niño Southern Oscillation) and the hydrometeorological response on the studied regions. For the analysis of the temporal scale of the dominant variability for these variables, the Wavelet Transform (TW) methodology was applied. The results indicated a greater variability in the rainfall in the eastern region where there is a marked increase in deforestation, which is part of the deforestation arc and in the South, where deforestation is already well established. While for the North region, the pattern remained without great variability. The ARIMA model was adequate, with good adjustment for monthly precipitation for the study regions. With regard to the RegCM4, this one ,it underestimated precipitation for the entire climatological series of all regions, but was able to adequately represent the variability of climatology for both precipitation and SPEI, mainly on the annual temporal scale (SPEI-12). As well as, it was better adjusted to identify conditions of moderate drought severity, mainly for the North and East regions. Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico - CNPq A mudança nos padrões de variáveis hidrometeorológicas tem sido alvo de grande preocupação na comunidade científica e na sociedade como um todo. Todas as preocupações estão no sentido de se compreender de que forma se dá o impacto no meio ambiente. Assim, o objetivo deste projeto foi estudar aspectos hidrometeorológicos (precipitação e evapotranspiração) em diferentes regiões na Amazônia com diferentes níveis de desmatamento. Para isso foram usados os dados de chuvas do Climate Prediction Center(CPC) com frequência mensal e cobertura espacial de 0,5º de latitude e de longitude (300 x 120 pontos de grade) que compreendem o período climatológico de 1981 a 2010 para as regiões Norte, Leste e Sul da Amazônia. Também foram utilizados dados do índice de severidade de seca (Standardised Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index – SPEI) nas escalas mensal (SPEI-1) e anual (SPEI-12) com o intuito de analisar a variabilidade e identificar a severidade da seca, para o mesmo período climatológico da precipitação para cada região do estudo. A metodologia consistiu em usar resultados de modelos estocásticos do tipo Auto Regressivo Integrado a Médias Móveis (ARIMA), a partir do qual foi possível fazer análise da variável-alvo dependente (precipitação) como função do tempo em cada região. Além disso, realizou-se uma simulação climatológica (1981-2010) para a América do Sul Tropical a partir do RegCM4, usando o esquema de parametrização Grell. A partir da precipitação e temperatura do modelo foram geradas séries climatológicas de SPEI-1 e SPEI-12 para as regiões, dessa forma foi possível fazer análises comparativas entre observação e modelo. Adicionalmente, analisou-se o Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) a fim de estabelecer uma relação entre as forçantes de grande escala oceânicas (notadamente o El Niño Oscilação Sul) e a resposta hidrometeorológica sobre as regiões estudadas. Para a análise da escala temporal da variabilidade dominante para as estas variáveis, foi aplicada a metodologia da Transformada de Wavelet (TW). Os resultados apontaram maior variabilidade nas chuvas na região Leste onde ocorre um acentuado avanço do desmatamento, o qual faz parte do arco do desmatamento e também na região Sul, onde o desmatamento já encontra-se bem estabelecido. Enquanto que para a região Norte o padrão se manteve sem grande variabilidade. O modelo ARIMA apresentou-se adequado, com bom ajuste para precipitação mensal para as regiões do estudo. Com relação ao RegCM4, este subestimou a precipitação para toda a série climatológica de todas as regiões, entretanto foi capaz de representar adequadamente a variabilidade da climatologia, tanto para a precipitação quanto para o SPEI, principalmente na escala temporal anual (SPEI-12). Assim como, esteve bem ajustado em identificar condições de seca de severidade moderada, principalmente para as regiões Norte e Leste. 2019-04-15T20:07:18Z 2019-04-15T20:07:18Z 2018-12-12 doctoralThesis CHAGAS, Glayson Francisco Bezerra das. Estudo hidrometeorológico da bacia amazônica. 2018. 156f. Tese (Doutorado em Ciências Climáticas) - Centro de Ciências Exatas e da Terra, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte, Natal, 2018. https://repositorio.ufrn.br/jspui/handle/123456789/26955 pt_BR Acesso Aberto application/pdf Brasil UFRN PROGRAMA DE PÓS-GRADUAÇÃO EM CIÊNCIAS CLIMÁTICAS

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