A geopolítica do petróleo e a influência nos preços das principais commodities agrícolas brasileiras
The research theme was the influence of petroleum geopolitics on the fixing of oil prices and the quantitative and qualitative relationship between oil price variation and selected commodity price changes: sugar; coffee; corn; soy and wheat. The sample for the survey was collected from the IPEA a...
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| Formato: | Dissertação |
| Idioma: | por |
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| Endereço do item: | https://repositorio.ufrn.br/jspui/handle/123456789/25696 |
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| Resumo: | The research theme was the influence of petroleum geopolitics on the fixing of oil prices and
the quantitative and qualitative relationship between oil price variation and selected commodity
price changes: sugar; coffee; corn; soy and wheat. The sample for the survey was collected from
the IPEA and comprised the period from the first quarter of 1990 to the first quarter of 2016,
105 observations. This period was chosen because it did not comprehend the main negative oil
supply shocks of the 1970s. The research work aimed at understanding the behavior of oil prices
from the interaction between oil majors and OPEC and demanders . From that point on, it sought
to understand the long-term correlation between the variation of oil prices and the variation in
the prices of the chosen agricultural commodities, which are very important for the balance of
the Brazilian trade balance. The theoretical reference for the understanding of petroleum
geopolitics was based on the works of Yergin (2010), Clô (2000) and Torres Filho (2004). For
the review of the literature on agricultural commodities, the basic bibliographies of Von Lampe
(2006), Souza et al (2010), Peres (2005) and Pinazza (2007) were used. To verify the
quantitative relationship between oil prices and commodity prices, some time series
econometric procedures were performed, including unit root tests with structural break and
cointegration. The econometric and statistical analysis of time series of selected commodity
prices confirmed a positive relationship between oil price changes and price changes for all
commodities for most of the period of the survey, with temporary inversions of signals for
soybean only . These tests showed that this relationship may not be verified in the short term,
but there is a long-term relationship between the series. |
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