Previsão sazonal da precipitação para o Nordeste do Brasil: um contraste entre as metodologias de Box-Jenkins e Box-Tiao
The objective this work is realize a comparative study with adjustment of previsions models by Box-Jenkins (ARIMA) and Box-Tiao (ARIMAX) methods for monthly accumulated precipitation in six cities of Brazilian northeast, choosing the cities according with Köppen climatic classification. We'v...
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| Formato: | Dissertação |
| Idioma: | por |
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Brasil
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| Endereço do item: | https://repositorio.ufrn.br/jspui/handle/123456789/23459 |
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| Resumo: | The objective this work is realize a comparative study with adjustment of
previsions models by Box-Jenkins (ARIMA) and Box-Tiao (ARIMAX) methods
for monthly accumulated precipitation in six cities of Brazilian northeast,
choosing the cities according with Köppen climatic classification. We've
exogenes variables: sea surface temperature of Atlantic and Pacific Ocean.In
all precipitations accumulated series were observerd the presence of sazonal
component, besides that, due to assumption of the constante variance and data
normality isn't reached, was applied in original serie the Box Cox
transformation.By the measures of quality of the models adjustments by ARIMA
and ARIMAX method, we've the ARIMAX model evidencied like the better
adjustment to data, showing lower values to AIC information criteria, mean error
and mean square error. |
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