O efeito da política industrial sobre o potencial de crescimento brasileiro: uma análise voltada para projeção com ênfase no período 2016-2025
Having as motivation the discussion that has been developing over the past few years about the development of the Brazilian industry and its impacts on the trajectory of economic growth, in this dissertation we aimed perform a simulation analysis on the effect of the implementation of a supposed ind...
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| Formato: | Dissertação |
| Idioma: | por |
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| Endereço do item: | https://repositorio.ufrn.br/jspui/handle/123456789/22772 |
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| Resumo: | Having as motivation the discussion that has been developing over the past few years about the development of the Brazilian industry and its impacts on the trajectory of economic growth, in this dissertation we aimed perform a simulation analysis on the effect of the implementation of a supposed industrial policy on the potential performance of the industrial sector and the Brazilian economy in the 2016-2025 period. To give support to this study, we developed a formal macroeconomic model oriented to projection, built here from Lourenço and Roos (2015) and the main recent theoretical developments of the growth model under external constraint. The simulation of industry performance and the Brazilian economy was generated under three different scenarios, all conditioned to the current macroeconomic policy management model of the country. The Scenario 1 represent the expected development of economic events in the absence of any further industrial policy. In Scenario 2, we included the assumption that, from 2016, the government implements an industrial policy by reducing to 0% the tax aliquot in the industry. Finally, in Scenario 3 we adopt the assumption that operates an industrial policy that does not manifest itself by changing the tax aliquot, but by credit selectivity mechanisms, trade, scientific and technological policy etc., which generate an annual increase of 1.0 percentage point in the weight of industrial exports in total exports, and a reduction of the same percentage point in the share of imports of that sector in total imports. The results suggests that the implementation of an industrial policy of the type specifically considered in Scenario 3, as well as a change in current macroeconomic policy management model are importante to leverage Brazilian economic growth; otherwise the country will follow featuring low growth rates. |
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