Transmissão de preços do mercado de milho na região do MATOPIBA: uma análise de cointegração
The expansion of the agricultural frontier in Brazil has changed the map of the country's grain production; in the meantime the region formed by the states of Maranhão, Tocantins, Piauí and Bahia, called MATOPIBA has been revealed as new grain producing region, especially soybeans and corn. Thi...
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| Formato: | Dissertação |
| Idioma: | por |
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| Endereço do item: | https://repositorio.ufrn.br/jspui/handle/123456789/22616 |
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| Resumo: | The expansion of the agricultural frontier in Brazil has changed the map of the country's grain production; in the meantime the region formed by the states of Maranhão, Tocantins, Piauí and Bahia, called MATOPIBA has been revealed as new grain producing region, especially soybeans and corn. This study aims to understand how is the transmission of corn prices in grain between the region of MATOPIBA and the main producing areas of corn from Brazil: Midwest and South The goal is to analyze the transmission of corn prices in grains, from 2005 to 2016, between the region of MATOPIBA and the states of Mato Grosso and Paraná, which are most representative in the production of corn in the Midwest and South, respectively. Specifically seeks to determine the existence of price transmission, identify the direction of causality in the transmission, to estimate the elasticity of the transmission and check the validity of the Law of One Price, focusing facing the MATOPIBA region. To meet the goal, we used price series producer level for a bag of 60 kg of maize grain, the following states: Maranhão, Tocantins, Piauí, Bahia, Mato Grosso and Paraná. The research methods used were the unit root tests, cointegration test of Johansen, error correction vector and Granger causality test. Understanding how is training and transmission of prices in the corn market in the country, contributes to a better design of the dynamics inherent in this trade. As a differential, this work introduces the region of MATOPIBA in the price transmission analysis, which has not yet been found in the literature on the subject. The results indicate the existence of price transmission and spatial integration between the state of Paraná and the MATOPIBA region, validating the assumptions of the Law of One Price for this market. But the state of Mato Grosso do not fully integrates with the MATOPIBA region, this fact is explained because this state is integrated more strongly with the foreign market. |
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